As of this writing (March 2019) stocks are beginning to come off their historic all time highs, could they recover and go higher? Yes, but is that a risk worth taking, I don’t think so.
The key to investing (in anything) is ‘Buy Low’ and ‘Sell High’, yes, it’s that simple. The only question is, what is ‘Low’ and what is ‘High’? Unfortunately there is no simple (or single) answer to this question, it’s all in who you ask.
One person to ask might be Warren Buffet, fortunately he has already told us. If you take the total value of all issued stock in a country and divide it by the countries total annual production get an indicator called, Market Cap /GDP. Which Buffet stated “is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” This is similar to a PE (Price to Earnings) ratio for a company, but you are looking at the countries economy as a whole.
The indicator below is typically used to shows how ‘inline’ stock prices are compared to the overall US economic output. As you can see we are currently above the levels we were, right before the dot com bubble bust in early 2000, a time when companies who had a domain name were worth millions, until they weren’t.
There are many people, primarily in the media, saying that the economy is great because employment in the US is doing great. The reason they say this is because the US “Unemployment Rate” is at all time lows, but I want to show you how the ‘Unemployment Rate’ and ‘Actual Employment’ are not as closely related, as you might think.
Below are a few charts I pulled from FRED, an economic data resource provided by the Federal Reserve. For starters only ~60% of the US population is actually working, well I guess there could be a bunch of children and retirees, who rightfully should not be in the workforce.
So why should you invest in Silver when there are so many great options out there, Cash, Stocks, Bonds, Gold or Real Estate. Though all of these are great assets to buy and own at one point or another, I believe right now is the time to buy and hold Silver. I’ll break down my reasons for believing this in this three part series.
PART ONE: WHY THE DEATH OF THE DOLLAR IS INEVITABLE
The US Federal Reserve dollar denominated notes, more commonly known as USD have actually been losing buying power since they were created in 1913. As you can see from this chart of USD inflation , $1 in 1913, had $25 worth of buying power by today’s metrics. For example you could buy $25 Continue reading →
So now you’re probably wondering, how do I get my hands on some silver?
As with most purchased these days, you have two main options, online or in-person retail. The advantages of each are about the same as with choosing to buy a TV on Amazon or at Best Buy. Online is (almost) always cheaper and you will have a much bigger selection, but by buying something in person, you get the added benefit of taking your silver home with you that day and the comfort of knowing that if you have any questions (or issues) regarding your purchase you have someone to speak with (or confront).
If you want to invest in physical silver, In my opinion, you have three major categories of silver to choose from; Nationally Minted Silver (NMS), Privately MintedSilver (PMS) or Manufactured Silver Goods, such as jewelry and Silverware. In this post I’ll discuss what I see as the benefits and drawbacks of each one of these options, and which you should put your paper money in.
Silver price is massively under valued due to the price manipulation preformed by banks since the late 1800’s. If we revert back to the historic (300+ yrs) Gold/Silver price ratio, silver should we worth ~$80/oz. at today’s gold price of ~$1,300/oz. (which many believe is itself undervalued)